Is the Alt-right taking over?
- Steven Donaldson
- Jan 1, 2020
- 3 min read
Updated: Jun 8, 2020
The news media makes us all think that the Alt-right and white extremism is way up and we are under threat. What we hear and see in the media does not reflect what's actually going on with the electorate however. There are challenging issues out there and people do feel more polarized but let's look at some facts about America.
The Republic Party is shrinking
As of October 2017, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrat, 24% identified as Republican, and 42% as Independent. This clearly shows a trend globally. More people vote independently without party affiliation. They are issue-focused voters. IT’s that middle that counts.
What voters really did in 2016
An amazing interactive map that lets you see, by county, how voters voted. Now much of the country looks red or pink but these areas represent the vast more rural underpopulated areas. This also shows how good the Republicans are at keeping some districts gerrymandered in their favor. Remember only 90,000 votes shifted Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Alt-right voters are a very small percent of real voters
According to Hawley, a political scientist who specializes in demography and the far right, roughly 5.64 percent pr 11.6 million of America’s 198 million non-Hispanic whites have beliefs consistent with the alt-right’s worldview. This figure ONLY represents white non-hispanic population eligible to vote. https://www.vox.com/2018/8/10/17670992/study-white-americans-alt-right-racism-white-nationalists
You will see moderates trying to figure out how to survive and have a message that gets through
What’s next? After the mid-terms and beyond?
The Democrats won the house. That's why the Republicans went out of their way to get Kavanaugh in and get tax reform passed. Two of their single biggest accomplishments.
I want to stress these are not Trumph successes.
The head of the Senate, Mitch McConnell absolutely is one of the most savvy politicians. He can’t stand Trump. He knows they are most likely going to loose in the mid-terms so you use every way possible to get your policies locked in place before things go south. ALSO he and Ryan is not running again because he also hates Trump and (is getting ready for a presidential run, look for Ryan Haley possibly in 2020). They see Trump’s fate sealed. With the house turning and possibly the senate but unlikely, and a push towards completing the Muller investigation Trumps days are numbered. He will possibly leave (get a pardon) or finish his term in a highly negative spin. SEE BELOW HOW THE RACES STACK UP
The 2020 presidential election - it’s going to be crazy
The Dems are going to be in a giant ideological fight between socialists driven far left agendas and moderates who will begin to loose out in the Heartland areas unless they pull the independents out.
The bottom line is both parties have lost their ability to be strategically focused on real polices that require cooperation to work
You will see the darlings like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders become stars. You will see moderates trying to figure out how to survive and have a message that gets through when the economy is soaring, unemployment the lowest ever, trade deals being done with Mexico and Canada not to mention China. The smart money is on the Republicans. The question is can they move to the middle more and more to gain that 42% of independent voters. I don't really think so but having two extremes gives moderate voters little enthusiasm for supporting either party.
And maybe Trump will win
This all depends on how the Democratic leadership shapes the future. I’m really, really worried about this because the farther left the Dems go only forces the Republicans to take the middle and take more moderate unaffiliated voters who do not drink the "party cool aid" of either party and want practical solutions to their problems whoever delivers them.
The bottom line is both parties have lost their ability to have a strategic focus on real polices that reflect measurable results in the world.
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